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Arup & Steer | Business Case Development - How to ask the right questions to get an appropriate and proportionate modelling response

9 October 2024

The third episode in a series of webinars, covering a range of topics suggested by officers. This 15 minute webinar covers a presentation on how to ask the right questions with our Subject Matter Experts: Josie Drath and Joshua Jiao.

Further documents

Business case development webinar - modelling approaches Q&A

When dealing with modelling projects, the details can be very technical. If you do not fully understand the approach, how can you ensure it is robust enough, even after reading the technical reports?


Answer: The executive summary should provide a high-level explanation of what has been done during the modelling process.  The summary should avoid technical terms and be logical. If not, ask the consultant or supplier to clarify. If they are unable to provide a satisfactory response, this should raise a red flag, and further challenge is warranted. Always sense-check the outputs. For example, consider whether the results seem realistic—if the forecasted passenger numbers exceed the capacity of a bus, this indicates a potential issue. Additionally, ensure that an assurance process has been undertaken to validate the results.

 

When dealing with development control for planning applications, you may work closely with expert modellers. However, the final decision often lies with a planning committee who may not fully understand the technical reports and may not delve deeply into the details needed to make an informed decision. How do you effectively present this information to them?


Answer: Start by revisiting the purpose of the commission—what issue are you trying to address? For example, are you solving delays on the network? Make sure to present a clear conclusion that outlines how the proposed solution addresses the identified problem. Instead of diving deep into modelling details, highlight the level of uncertainties, such as variability and the accuracy of the modelling, and how these uncertainties have been considered, ensuring that this is communicated in straightforward terms. Avoid technical jargon in any presentation. Instead, use simple language, follow common sense, and incorporate local knowledge where possible to make the information relatable. Present the findings in a structured, concise and accessible way. Use visuals—such as graphs, charts, maps, or infographics—as these can convey complex information more clearly than lengthy paragraphs or dense tables, which may overwhelm readers, especially when this is one of many papers they need to review. Consider using tools like Power BI, but be aware that not everyone is familiar with interpreting these visuals, and they may not always be intuitive. It’s a good idea to do a dry run of your explanation, using anecdotal evidence as a relatable starting point when presenting information to a non-technical audience, including politicians.


What should I expect from the assurance approach?


Answer: Ask whether the process addresses the examination questions, ensure that functional checks are carried out. Review the methodology and validate whether the assumptions are correct using tool such as DfT’s Modelling and Appraisal Self-assessment Toolkit. Follow a clear process of checking, reviewing, assurance, and sign-off, and document each stage along the way.  Ensure those conducting the assurance are suitably qualified. While documentation is often overlooked, it’s valuable to include records of the assurance process to demonstrate due diligence. However, it’s important to maintain a good balance between checking and actually performing the analytical work to make the process efficient.



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